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What is this Report About?
Welcome to the RISKSIGNAL Report on Substack, your secret weapon in understanding and navigating the market for optimal long-term investment strategies. Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® is a Financial Advisor and Portfolio Manager, bringing together intricate risk analysis and tactical investment strategies, curating them into a weekly comprehensive report sent directly to your inbox.
What sets us apart is our rules-based investment strategy that allows us to forecast increased volatility and market trends so you can prepare BEFORE risk happens. By subscribing to the Ivory Hill Report, you will be at the forefront of these movements, prepared to make well-informed investment decisions ahead of the crowd and their narratives.
Who Is This Report For?
If you're a serious DIY investor or a financial advisor seeking to uphold a high-performing portfolio amidst market volatility, then the Ivory Hill Report is your perfect supplement to your ongoing research. It's a comprehensive guide that equips you with the necessary insights to consistently achieve success in the stock market and protect against downside risks, irrespective of market conditions.
What sets this report apart is its ability to help you seize market trends before they become apparent to the majority of investors. This report is the brainchild of Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®, the Chief Investment Officer and a Fiduciary financial advisor at Ivory Hill. You are receiving the same newsletter that is sent out to our firm’s current clients.
The Ivory Hill Report encapsulates investment strategies, risk management strategies, and early indicators of volatility that have stood the test of time, and I'm excited to share them with you today.
Who Is This Report NOT For?
We're not here to offer get-rich-quick schemes or to encourage high-risk, one-off gambles on pink sheet stocks. Our mission is different, and it's catered to those with a vision for sustainable wealth accumulation over time.
This report is all about empowering investors like you to accurately identify market conditions, efficiently protect your portfolio through volatility, and seize opportunities for long-term growth. And we accomplish this through meticulous market data interpretation and comprehensive analysis.
Protect Your Hard-Earned Capital
In this era of heightened market volatility, protecting your hard-earned capital and making informed investment decisions have become paramount. The conventional buy-and-hold investing strategy no longer assures long-term prosperity. We do not believe in boiler plate asset allocation and buy-and-hold strategies like you see at the big box financial institutions. The key to achieving impressive returns while safeguarding yourself from potential risks lies in adopting a tactical rules-based approach that is firmly rooted in data analysis.
Fundamental Principles
I don’t believe in making predictions or perfectly timed trades but I try to tell you that conditions suggest that you should consider reducing some risk in your portfolio and when conditions suggest you should add more risk to your portfolio.
Meteorologists monitor indicators like air pressure, wind speed, weather front, and humidity to forecast weather conditions. Similarly we monitor macroeconomic and quantitative indicators to forecast market conditions.
Here are some of our fundamental principles.
Long-term wealth generation begins with wealth preservation
Risk should be managed before, not after, higher volatility in markets
Volatility is predictable and can be positioned for in advance
Minimizing drawdowns is critical to long-term outperformance
Alpha can be generated through active risk management
I don’t believe in making a call or making perfectly timed trades.
This isn't a matter of opinion or prediction. It's the market conditions that determine the probabilities, and these probabilities, in turn, shape the outcome.
Proprietary STOPLOSS Indicator
Ivory Hill's investment strategies are designed with a dual purpose - to safeguard capital during market downturns and to aim for superior performance than major indices during market upswings. The RiskSIGNAL, while technical in nature, offers a clear interpretation. It serves as a potential buffer against downside risk by indicating when to shift from equities to cash and cash equivalents. Over the years, the RiskSIGNAL has proven its capacity to strategically position its investors defensively, regardless of market fluctuations.
The design of this process is rooted in mathematics and devoid of emotional bias. It signals when to transition to cash and/or lower-risk investments during market downturns. Consequently, this strategy may result in greater capital availability for reinvestment during market upswings.
This unemotional, systematic, and repeatable framework helps Ivory Hill in eliminating speculation from our investment decisions, as we aim to align client portfolios with the market's favorable side. While not every signal will lead to a profitable trade, its capacity to provide safe harbor for your investment capital during significant market downturns and seize growth opportunities equips you with the potential to outperform the market over the long haul.
Consider this: a portfolio that incurs a 40% loss requires a 67% gain to revert to its previous value. By mitigating the impact of a major market downturn, the investor is left in a more advantageous position compared to a buy-and-hold strategy.
But dodging market downturns is merely the beginning of an effective risk management system. The manager also needs to know when to execute buy orders during a very uncomfortable time in the market. This is where the RiskSIGNAL steps in again, indicating a potential upward trend.
GOAL
Our objective is to seize 70-85% of the market's upward trend while sidestepping 70-85% of the downward trend.
Our aim isn't about pinpointing the peaks and troughs of the market. Rather, we focus on identifying trends and early indicators of volatility through our quantitative investment strategy.
We adhere to active money management. We don't subscribe to the buy-and-hold philosophy, nor do we believe in outdated-boiler plate asset allocation (yes, a wealth advisor just said that). In a market that neither thinks nor feels, our best defense lies in being both strategic and tactical.
